Fossil Fuels

A Role Of Renewables Increasingly Significant

Given the current dynamics, going back to 2000 to measure a cumulative evolution does not allow observing the recent impact of renewable energies really. Thus, the negative image associated with the development over the period 2000-2015 is nuanced or even reversed when one focuses on the last years.

Between 2000 and 2015, the increase in primary consumption of fossil fuels (still in the sense of BP) was five times faster than that of the equivalent primary use of renewable energies. Over the period 2010-2015, the ratio is only 2.3, reflecting the ongoing rebalancing dynamic.This dynamic even seems to be reversed: between 2014 and 2015, the ratio between the increase in fossil fuels and that of renewable energies (still in the sense of the BP balance sheet) was only 1.1 In 2015, the increase in primary equivalent of so-called “non-carbon” energies was for the first time greater than that of “carbon” energies, with 64.5 Mtoe of growth compared with 62.1 Mtoe. In non-carbon strengths, most of the increase comes from renewables, with 56.9 Mtoe, compared to 7.6 Step in nuclear power.

A Specific Impact On Electricity

This latest rebalancing is due as much to the development of renewable energies as to the significant decline in coal in 2015 of 71.3 Mtoe (see Figure 7 above). Although consolidated electricity data are not available at this stage in 2015 to support this assumption, it appears that this sector accounts for most of this decline. According to some estimates, coal-based power generation could have declined by more than 300 TWh between 2014 and 2015. In other words, the deployment of photovoltaic and wind power would now reach a level sufficient to allow a decline Coal-based electricity generation:

It is more specifically in the electricity sector that it is most relevant to measure the impact of new renewable energies, mainly if we focus on wind and photovoltaic power. It establishes, and more clearly, the same observation as on the whole of energy: measured by five-year increments over the period 2000-2014 6, the evolution of world production by energy shows a transfer from growth dynamics to renewable energy. Between 2000 and 2005, the growth of electricity generated by thermal power plants was almost five times greater than that of heat from renewable sources.

This dynamic is even more pronounced considering the last year for which global electricity production statistics are available, i.e., 2014.Electricity generation based on fossil fuels increased in this year by around 34 TWh, by far the smallest annual increase since 2000 (except the recession observed between 2008 and 2009). Electricity based on fossil fuels represents only 11% of the increase in total production compared to 2013. Renewable generation, which increased by 219 TWh, contributed to 72% of this growth. Between 2013 and 2014, wind generation grew four times more than coal-based production and photovoltaic product 2.6 times more. It is estimated that in 2015, wind power doubled its rate of growth.